Extended warranty vs self-funded repair: expected cost calculator
Extended warranty vs self-funded repair: expected cost calculator. Expected difference (warranty − self-funded); Simple break-even failure probability (%).
Only extended warranties for household appliances, electronics and household items. Excludes insurance products, car/home warranties, financial guarantees, investments and loans. No financial/insurance advice or enrollment recommendation. Probability is your assumption for the entire entered warranty period, not a failure or brand reliability forecast; years do not annualize it. Break-even is a single-claim approximation scaled by entered expected claims. Existing coverage is deducted directly from expected repair cost. Exclusions, denied claims, claim limits, caps, depreciation, replacement conditions, shipping, downtime, quality and convenience are ignored. Check repair quotes and warranty terms. Use one currency; initial prices are editable examples, probability starts blank. A positive expected difference means the warranty path costs more in expectation.
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Method
Self-funded expected repair cost = max(0, Covered failure probability over entire warranty (%) — your assumption ÷ 100 × Estimated covered repair cost × Expected covered claims (optional, default 1) − Estimated existing coverage value (optional)); Expected warranty path cost = Warranty price + Covered failure probability over entire warranty (%) — your assumption ÷ 100 × (Deductible per claim + Other cost per claim (optional)) × Expected covered claims (optional, default 1); Simple break-even failure probability (%) = Warranty price ÷ ((Estimated covered repair cost − Deductible per claim − Other cost per claim (optional)) × Expected covered claims (optional, default 1)) × 100.